Nigeria Stock Market Weekly Summary: Week Ending Sept 19, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) wrapped up the week at 141,845.32, representing a modest +0.13% week-on-week gain. While this week's appreciation lagged last week's +0.83% increase, YTD gains improved to a robust +37.47%. Market sentiment stayed cautiously optimistic, although trading activity was somewhat mixed—the value of trades ticked up (+8.27%) but volume and trade deals slipped (-21.31% and -9.63% respectively). Market breadth remains neutral-positive, with advancers narrowly edging decliners.

Key Trends and Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Ratio at 1.05x, with 46 advancers vs. 44 decliners—barely positive market-wide momentum.
  • Advancers: 25.70% of stocks
  • Decliners: 24.58%
  • Unchanged: 49.72%—almost half the board is on the sidelines, signaling general caution or sector rotation in play.
• Notable New Highs: 6 stocks hit new highs this week—a healthy sign, while no new lows were registered.
• Volume Moves: For 141 stocks, volume was up WTD; for another 141, it was down—another clear sign of rotation and selectivity by investors.

Top 5 Week-to-Date Gainers

Top 5 Week-to-Date Losers

Top 5 Year-to-Date Gainers and Losers

Note: Despite the latter four being WTD losers, their YTD performance is positive, highlighting the volatile and rotational nature of current market leadership.

Indexes Performance — Weekly & Year-to-Date

• Index Outperformance: The Consumer Goods (+1.87% WTD, +93.63% YTD) and Lotus Islamic (+0.82% WTD, +69.24% YTD) indexes continue to outperform, highlighting ongoing rotation into consumer and Sharia-compliant strategies.
• Index Underperformance: Oil/Gas (+2.88% WTD) remains negative for the year (-8.28% YTD), while Insurance led sectoral decliners at -4.45% WTD but is still up YTD by +58.88%.
• Banking Weakness: The Banking Index (-2.61% WTD) suffered, in line with the WTD declines in UBA and Zenith, despite being a popular trading venue for both institutional and retail traders.
• Divergences: Note the +1.41% WTD gain in Commodities alongside resilience in Main-Board stocks; however, value-focused indexes—MERI Value and AFR Div Yield—lagged this week.

Momentum Analysis: RSI, MACD, and Moving Averages

• Bullish Momentum (RSI > 70): No top gainer or loser is currently above the RSI "overbought" zone. However, GUINNESS (62.69), CHELLARAM (63.70), and ACADEMY (54.13) are trending higher with strong WTD gains and persistently high RSI—suggesting continued bullish bias but not yet overextended.
  • MACD on GUINNESS, EUNISELL, MULTIVERSE, CHELLARAM all show positive crossovers vs. signal—additional uptrend confirmation.
  • Sparklines (15D/50D): GUINNESS: 15DMA (142.79) > 50DMA (129.64)
    EUNISELL: 15DMA (26.43) > 50DMA (22.80)
• Bearish Momentum (RSI < 30): No major WTD loser has RSI below 30 (oversold); GREENWETF (44.47) is closest and has suffered the largest YTD drawdown (-56.74%). Generally, losing stocks are not yet technically oversold, suggesting potential further room for weakness.
  • MACD negative for most top losers; CILEASING, OMATEK, and CORNERST all show negative price momentum and breakdowns below key averages.

Hidden Insights and Pattern Detection

• Momentum Overlap: Many of the week’s top gainers (CHELLARAM, ACADEMY, GUINNESS, MULTIVERSE) also appear among top YTD performers—momentum persists and signals strong medium-term investor conviction.
• High Dividend Yield Watch:
  • CORNERSTONE INSURANCE (CORNERST): Despite a sharp WTD decline (-14.48%), offers a relatively high dividend yield at 5.28%. The drop suggests caution—yield trap risk as price keeps falling.
  • GUINNESS NIG PLC: Yields 4.83% and is in strong uptrend—rare combination of value and momentum for income-oriented growth investors.
• Laggards Are Not Self-Consistent: Several WTD losers (CHAMS, OMATEK, CILEASING) remain YTD gainers, confirming the rotational nature of current trading—investors take profits and move to fresh themes.
• Turnover Decrease: Decline in trade deals and volumes signals some fatigue among active traders and a preference for selectivity, but the rise in value traded suggests buying is getting more concentrated in higher-value stocks or blocks.
• Sector Rotation: Index comparison sees old favorites (Consumer, Lotus Islamic) still dominating YTD, while Banking and Oil/Gas are either stalling or attempting a rebound.

Retail vs Institutional Activity — Market Activity Analysis

• Trade Count Distribution: Retail brokers accounted for 61.93% of trade count but only 33.85% of volume and 14.01% of value. Institutional investors, in contrast, executed 38.07% of trade count but accounted for a sizeable 66.15% of total volume and 85.99% of trade value.
  • This confirms institutions are trading in much larger average block sizes and are driving the big price moves or supporting underlying liquidity in blue chips.
• Top 5 Most Traded (by Volume) — Institutional:
  • 1. UBA: 75.7m shares, (-8.58% WTD)
  • 2. ZENITHBANK: 25.3m shares, (-5.88% WTD)
  • 3. ACCESSCORP: 24.8m shares, (-4.07% WTD)
  • 4. GTCO: 7.7m shares, (-0.21% WTD)
  • 5. MTNN: 1.1m shares, (flat WTD)
  • All top 4 institutional favorites in banking sector saw negative price performance WTD—significant outflow or profit-taking theme.
• Top 5 Most Traded (by Volume) — Retail:
  • Matched exactly the institutional trades in symbols (UBA, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN) but with drastically lower volumes—suggesting high two-way activity and potential whip-sawing in banks, with retail consistently following institutional moves.
• Retail-Driven Volatility: Steep % volume change versus 90-day average in some big caps (eg. UBA: +239.84% vs avg), reflecting a surge of interest—often a sign to watch for climactic moves and reversals.
• Pattern Detection: Major banks’ negative WTD performance correlates closely with index-level Banking weakness and high institutional trade volumes, indicating heavy distribution or rotation out of banks.

Actionable Insights and Suggestions for Traders

• Revisit Value Stocks with Strong Momentum: GUINNESS offers both high growth and yield—a rare combination. Continue to ride winners like CHELLARAM and ACADEMY, but maintain stop-losses as RSI gets closer to overbought zones.
• Banking Sector Caution: Both institutional and retail are actively trading top banks, but with negative price follow-through, sector remains risky short term—wait for clear reversal or positive divergence before adding.
• High Dividend, Weak Price: Be careful of high-yield decliners like CORNERST—yield can be a value trap if capital losses accelerate.
• Monitor Rotation: Continued relative strength in Consumer Goods and Lotus Islamic stocks, with evidence of profit-taking in prior banking leaders. Utilize technicals (like rising 15DMA above 50DMA, healthy RSI) to spot sustainable breakouts.
• Selective Aggression, Broad Caution: With nearly half the market unchanged and volumes split 50/50 up/down, be nimble—rotate into proven momentum, take profits incrementally, and avoid outsized positions in sectors with distribution (such as banks this week).

Currency Indicator

• Naira vs USD: Naira appreciated +0.51% to 1,496/USD—could support foreign interest and sentiment for NGX stocks, especially in consumer, exporters, and USD-earning stocks.

Summary Table: Top 5 YTD Gainers

Summary Table: Top 5 WTD Losers

Market Activity Summary: Key Observations

• Institutions Dominate Value: Institutions made just 2,351 trades (38.07% of count) but moved 66.15% of volume and a striking 85.99% of value—active in large cap/banking names.
• Top 5 most traded stocks (both retail and institutional): UBA, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN. Banking sector in focus, but also the worst performing sector WTD.
• Retail trade activity: 61.93% of trade count, but just 14.01% of value. Retail likely fueling short-term volatility, following institutional flows.
• Price-Volume Divergence: Despite heavy institutional volume in banking, all major banks closed negative WTD—distribution likely outweighing accumulation.
• Implication for traders: Watch for end-of-rotation rebounds in lagging banks, but don't ignore the tide—favor sectors with strong YTD/WTD alignment (Consumer, Islamic, select momentum names).

This summary blends factual performance, pattern recognition, and technical momentum signals to help both retail and institutional investors navigate the evolving NGX landscape. Stay nimble, watch rotation clues, and keep your risk controls tight.